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Chancing it : the laws of chance and how they can work for you / Robert Matthews ; foreword by Larry Gonick.

by Matthews, Robert, 1959-

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Skyhorse Publishing, c2017.

Random data (Statistics).

Mathematical statistics.

9781510723795 (hc)

151072379X (hc)

Alternate title:

Laws of chance and how they can work for you

1st Skyhorse Publishing ed.

xii, 290 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.

First published in Great Britain in 2016 by Profile Books Ltd.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 264-282) and index.

Foreword / by Larry Gonick -- The coin-tossing prisoner of the Nazis -- What the Law of Averages really means -- The dark secret of the Golden Theorem -- What are the chances of that? -- Thinking independently is no yolk -- Random lessons from the lottery -- Warning : there's a lot of X about -- Why the amazing so often turns ho-hum -- If you don't know, go random -- Doing the right thing isn't always ethical -- How a lot of bull sparked a revolution -- How to beat casinos at their own game -- Where wise-guys go wrong -- The Golden Rule of Gambling -- Insure it-- or chance it? -- Making better bets in the Casino of Life -- Tell me straight doc-- what are my chances? -- This is not a drill! : Repeat: this is not a drill! -- The miraculous formula of Reverend Bayes -- When Dr. Turing met Reverend Bayes -- Using Bayes to be a better judge -- A scandal of significance -- Dodging the Amazing Baloney Machine -- Making use of what you already know -- I'm sorry professor, I just don't buy it -- The Amazing Curve for Everything -- The dangers of thinking everything's Normal -- Ugly sisters and evil twins -- Going to extremes -- See a Nicolas Cage movie and die -- We've got to draw the line somewhere -- Playing the markets isn't rocket science -- Beware geeks bearing models.

"Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance--only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life. In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know: how to understand and even predict coincidences; when an insurance policy is worth having; why "expert" predictions are often misleading; how to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney; when it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets. A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck."--Jacket.

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