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The fourth turning is here : what the seasons of history tell us about how and when this crisis will end / Neil Howe.

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Simon & Schuster, 2023.

303.40112 H857f

Twenty-first century -- Forecasts.

Cycles -- History.

United States -- Forecasting.

9781982173739 (hc.)

1st Simon & Schuster hardcover ed.

xi, 578 p. ; 24 cm.

Original work "The Fourth Turning" written by William Strauss and Neil Howe in 1997.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

"Historian Howe (The Fourth Turning, with Strauss) revisits in this far-ranging treatise his concept of historical cycles, which he calls saecula, composed of four generation-long 'Turnings.' Since WWII, Howe contends, humans have passed through the 'High,' 'Awakening,' and 'Unraveling' turnings and are currently in the fourth, the 'Crisis' turning, which should climax by the early 2030s. The vaguely sketched period could see economic crashes, political chaos, or war, but it will likely leave humanity, Howe argues, with reinvigorated national institutions, social solidarity, prosperity, and technological marvels. Howe grounds all this in an intricate system of generational archetypes stretching back to the 15th century. Thus, the baby boomers are a prophet generation that will offer visionary leadership in the crisis, Generation X a nomad generation that will seek to provide pragmatic management and stability after suffering childhood abandonment, Millennials a public-spirited hero generation that will build the new order, and Generation Z an overly sensitive artist generation. Howe's writing sometimes feels nebulous and Nostradamian -- "As Artists replace the Heroes in childhood, they are overprotected at a time of traumatic conflict and adult self-sacrifice" -- and his historical comparisons aren't always well supported. The result is an intriguing but ultimately unconvincing theory of history's convoluted patterns."--Publishers Weekly.

Neil Howe is a historian, economist, and demographer who writes and speaks frequently on generational change, American history, and long-term fiscal policy. He coauthored seven books with William Strauss, including Generations, 13th Gen, The Fourth Turning, and Millennials Rising. In 1991, Howe and Strauss coined the term “Millennial Generation.” Howe’s other books include On Borrowed Time (with Peter G. Peterson) and The Graying of the Great Powers (with Richard Jackson). He is managing director of demography for Hedgeye, an investment advisory firm. He is also a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and at the Global Aging Institute. He grew up in California and holds graduate degrees in history and economics from Yale University. He lives with his family in Great Falls, Virginia.

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